COTlive Reports

Sunday, January 23, 2011

TopStep Email Alert, Topic Feeder Cattle




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The Feeder Cattle is approaching a critical area and potential top in time and price.  As the daily chart illustrates, this market has been in balance of time for years.  For what ever reason 82 and 123 market days have been in sync.  82 is 66% of 123 or 3 times 82 is 246 /2 = 123.  The math of time is impressive on it's on merit but the market price as well has hit 150% of the low and from the lowest close of 8665 is 129.97.  Use caution in purchasing futures from this point.  Use your speed lines on intra-day and daily charts for support and any violation to show potential trend change.  One must note, that the last high, to corrective low, was less then $10.00.   It was more of a time break then a price break.  Also, be aware that Saturn begins its Retrograde trek on Jan 26th until June 13th.

There are many markets that are also seeing this extreme price movements, Coffee, Cotton, Gold, Copper etc...  all of these markets are also showing mathematical points of extreme concern as potential major swing highs.  Of course, this doesn't mean that it is a high, but likely, if this is not a major high, it still should cause some high level of agitation to the bulls.

The Index Funds have their tentacles in every commodity traded and not traded on the futures.  The stock market is desperately trying to lure the green commodity investors back to the stock market.  Technicals indication tell me that most all the stock and commodity markets have  related interests.  Just as investors are finding out that if Greece would have failed eventually the U.S. would have failed.  Why, because the Index Funds would have failed.  The loss of Taxpayers capital is no consequence to the CIT managers. They are not operating on just one currency, but these big Index Funds are  tied to all the Currencies, tied to all the global commodities, and tied together.  Even though there is dozens of separate entities, they all trade the same markets. So doesn't that make them all a suburb of the same city?

My point to this sidetrack is the Macro Market!  Every market will all go up, or everything will all go down.  The U.S. becomes insolvent or loses it AAA bond rating, everything will go down, gold, silver, beans and stocks, it won't matter.  Remember the Flash Crash that occurred what did the commodities do?  What did Gold do? The flash crash was only a trading error in one stock company that set off a gag reflex in all market, why, because the Long Index Funds are Long all Markets... 

Thursday, January 20, 2011

CME is going to Regulate the differed grain contracts again


 
CME sent out an update on some test that they where doing?  Apparently they turned off the implied spreading functionality on corn futures.  First off, I never received any notice that they turned it off to begin with.  I was under the impression that the bull spreading in the grain was because they were more bull spreaders then bear spreaders and the spread went up...  But now the CME "Local Government",,, now says that the test period is over, hmmm.  Ok in this day of transparency, were are the actual numbers to the test.  I 'm having a hard time believing, that the volume in spreading didn't go up, because of the free non-restricted atmosphere that the test period created.  In my small office I traded 85% more spreads when the spread began to move, remember the spread is two orders, long and short. 

Assuming the CME boys shut  it off in Sept 1, the CN11 vs. CZ11 was trading at +22.00.  When the news came out yesterday that the testing period was over and the CME was again going to regulate the Differed contracts and keep them in line with the front months the spread topped out at +98.00 and currently 1 day later its at +80.00...  This is wrong on so many levels I don't know were to begin.  Obviously I recommended bailing on all bull spreads,,, the game has changed...  In most all bull markets Government tends to make the highs, CME is the biggest local Government we have in the industry!  The CME based its decision to turn on the spread controls again because of Customer Feedback???  My guess is that Cargill and other commercials gave some negative feedback alright.  No one else new the test was even on!

The ripple affect this will have is unknown but I can assume the markets reaction on Wednesday the 19th of Jan showed it will impact the outright futures as well.  Numbers in the outright spreads can be over a quarter of million based on the CFTC data, and since the differs are now regulated, it may be wise to be long the CZ12 and CZ13 on any breaks.  I would complain, but to whom? 
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January 19, 2011
Implied Corn Spreads Reinstated Effective Trade Date January 31, 2011
From September to the end of December of last year, CME Group turned off the implied spreading functionality on corn futures. The objective of this test, which was recently extended through the end of January, was to determine if a more robust market, in terms of market participation, market depth and market liquidity, could be achieved in an environment without this functionality.

From the beginning of this test, market performance was monitored against a wide range of objective measurement criteria to determine changes in the market. Unless there were clear improvements in the market, the assumption was that the implied spreading functionality would be reinstated at the end of the trial period.

Based on our assessment of this data and customer feedback, it is our intention to reinstate the implied spreading functionality effective trade date January 31, 2011.

CME Group will continue to look at methods of improving market quality including consideration of a partial implied spreading functionality where implieds provide support only to back month contracts. We will provide the market with significant advance notice before testing this or other potential modifications.

 For the latest information on Corn futures and other Agricultural products, visit www.cmegroup.com/agriculture